Saturday, September 10, 2011

Folding Aces Preflop: When it (Rarely) Makes Sense

At the World Series of Poker this year, there was a story from the Seniors Event in which a player folded aces preflop after two of his opponents had already moved all-in. His reasoning? He thought that one of them likely had the other AA, while the other was probably on KK, so he was playing for a chop at best!

Okay, so that reasoning doesn't hold up to scrutiny, but it is worth noting that there's a situation in which folding AA -- or any other hand -- makes sense. In a satellite tournament that awards multiple seats, you don't need to be gunning for first place; the only goal is to finish in the top x (where x is the number of seats being awarded). This creates some strange strategic implications. For instance, if you were 2nd in chips with eight players left, and seven players were guaranteed to win seats into a major tournament, you'd be correct to play very conservatively. So conservatively, in fact, that if the chip leader moved all-in for some reason, it would be correct to fold even AA rather than put your chips at risk! There's simply nothing for you to gain by winning, while losing would cost you what was a virtually guaranteed prize. Of course, in cash games and in almost every conceivable situation in a standard tournament, that situation doesn't apply, so you'll want to get the most out of your aces.

So, what happened to the player at the WSOP? Amazingly enough, he was not only right -- his opponents did have AA and KK -- but a king hit on the flop, making the player with KK the winner! It still doesn't make folding those aces the right play...but it sure makes for a great story.

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