Thursday, October 6, 2011

You Don't Have to be Certain

Few things in life are certain -- and the same goes for poker. Sure, it's great when you call someone's hand out and they flip over the cards to reveal they're exactly right, but in most cases, it's impossible to get that precise a read on an opponent.

In fact, attempting to do so can often lead you to conclusions that are entirely wrong. It's much better to put an opponent on a range of hands that you're confident about (for instance: "My opponent has AK, QQ, KK or AA") than to try to put them on a single hand with less certainty. In many cases, players do the latter in order to justify otherwise questionable plays -- and while it looks impressive when they turn out to be right, the results can be disastrous when they're wrong, and relying on a broader range would have led to the correct play.

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